To better analyze this problem, we recommend using decision trees, including various transport options and all cost information. The decision point indicates whether or not to choose which supplier as well as it will determine the feasibility of decision analysis method. Three of the options include Telihard, Naval and Linx. And each company has two options: standard and urgent, which have different shipping times and costs. Because of these 12 options, the probability becomes one factors. Therefore, the team sets Teilhard, Naval, and Linx as the decision nodes. Then, the probability of expedited maun, and standard manu is event node. The goal of this decision tree is to find the lowest cost accounting option, regardless of ten days plus a fine.
Our decision tree shows all possible solutions for production and transportation. We found 7 paths, and the lowest cost from naval companies. There are three ways in the standard manufacturing process. Which is the lowest cost is that standard manufacturing with the shipping process. Although there is an 22.2% chance to pay a fine, it is $5000. And the same time, under the Naval, expedited manufacturing with standard shipping are best, and no penalty cost. In addition, Teilhard is the fastest of the three companies, because expedited manufacturing and expedited shipping to complete only need six days and cost $2526. Although it saves more time, according to requirements, the advantage is not strong enough.
Conclusion and Recommended Actions:
For part one, we recommend Mr. Wobs to open plants in the US, China, and Spain. For
Tune, we suggest producing in China and Spain, which will respectively produce
3494 and 2206 units to meet the requirements. For Uplayer, the products can be
produced in the US and China, and the production amounts are 2478 and 1122 units.
What’s more, US can also produce the Mixer and the amount will be 3230. There will
be 5708 products produced in North America in total. The total cost will be 804963.9 dollars. We do not recommend to build plants in Mexico and Canada because that will cost more. Through this way, there will be created 20195.44 kg of CO2 and spend 23092.24 dollars tariffs. In summary, the first model is the most efficient way to build plants through analytics.
For the part 2, the team recommends Mr. Wobs to select Naval with expedited manufacturing and standard shipping (NES) which costs $2914. Although the lowest cost is $2736 (Naval with standard manufacturing and shipping/ NSS), it has 22.2% chance to pay $5000 as a penalty. Compared with NES, it saves $178, but the team thinks Mr.Wob has better avoiding the risk of penalty.